AGENDA
Hosted by
The United States Army
Co-Sponsored by
Institute for Foreign Policy Analysis, Inc.
The International Security Studies Program of The Fletcher School of
Law and Diplomacy, Tufts University
Office of the Deputy Chief of Staff of the Army for Operations and
Plans
Office of the Secretary of Defense for Net Assessment
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TUESDAY, NOVEMBER 2
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Conference Registration and Informal Reception
0730 - 0845
Welcoming Remarks
0850-0900
Dr. Robert L. Pfaltzgraff, Jr. President, Institute for Foreign Policy
Analysis, and Shelby Cullom Davis Professor of International Security
Studies, The Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy, Tufts University
Opening Presentation
0900 - 1000
Transforming National Defense in the 21st Century
Senator Joseph I. Lieberman, Senate Armed Services Committee
Introduction by General John M. Keane, USA, Vice Chief of Staff, United
States Army
PANEL 1
1015 - 1145
Understanding the Implications of the 21st Century Challenges
U.S. national security in the early twenty-first century may be challenged
in ways very different from those faced since the end of the Cold War.
Others argue that twenty-first century challenges will look much the
same as those we've faced through the 1990s: continued high operational
tempo, service-members maintaining peace, rebuilding nations, handling
refugees and helping with disaster relief-as examples. In either case,
the trends toward a multi-polar international system, diffusion and
empowerment of non-state actors, and the emergence of new problems
will make necessary novel approaches to diplomacy and the use of military
power. Developing a common understanding of the factors that will shape
national security priorities will provide the essential framework to
address these challenges.
Discussion:
Potential for great power, near-peer competition and anti-U.S. sentiment.
The collapse of states and increased frequency of intra-state conflicts.
The proliferation and the threat of weapons of mass destruction.
U.S. domestic dynamics / Increased demand for humanitarian intervention.
New challenges: Information warfare (including cyber-terrorism).
Implications for the Department of Defense.
Moderator:
Dr. Robert L. Pfaltzgraff, Jr.
Panel Members:
Senator John Warner, Chairman, Senate Armed Services Committee
Lieutenant General Patrick M. Hughes, USA (Ret.), former Director,
Defense Intelligence Agency
Mr. Robert A. Kaplan, Journalist and Author of Balkan Ghosts and Ends
of the Earth
Dr. Richard A. Falkenrath, Assistant Professor of Public Policy, John
F. Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University
Luncheon and Address
1200 - 1400
The Department of Defense for the 21st Century
The Honorable William S. Cohen, Secretary of Defense
Introduction by the Honorable Louis Caldera, Secretary of the Army
PANEL 2
1400 - 1515
Perspectives on a 21st Century National Strategy and the Role of Military
Power
We are now confronting a security environment characterized by new
sources of instability. At the same time, as a nation the United States
seeks to develop a national security strategy that links our interests
and values. Coalitions and alliances take on a new role within the
framework of early twenty-first century international security. The
challenge will be to ensure that our chosen course is consonant with
national values and vital interests. We must ensure that our national
security strategy and the role of military power can adapt to the challenges
of a new century.
Discussion:
Enduring and changing interests and values of the United States.
National security concepts (selective engagement, cooperative security
and preventive defense).
Role of deterrence, compellance, and warfighting.
Military operations other than war, including peacekeeping and peace
enforcement.
When should we employ the use of force: criteria, guidelines.
Use of military as an element to shape the international security environment.
Moderator:
Dr. Jacquelyn K. Davis, Executive Vice President, Institute for Foreign
Policy Analysis and Co-Author of Strategic Paradigms 2025
Panel Members
The Honorable Warren Rudman, Co-Chair, United States Commission on
National Security/21st Century, and former Senator from New Hampshire
Dr. John P. White, former Deputy Secretary of Defense, and Professor,
John F. Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University
General Klaus Naumann, (Ret.), former Chairman, Military Committee,
NATO
Admiral Joseph W. Prueher, USN (Ret.), former Commander in Chief, U.S.
Pacific Command, and Ambassador (D) to China
General Sir Jeremy MacKenzie GCB OBE, former Deputy SACEUR, and Governor
of the Royal Hospital Chelsea, Great Britain
PANEL 3
1530 - 1700
Anticipating Today the Essential Capabilities for Tomorrow
The security challenges in the early twenty-first century require
forces to respond more quickly, more decisively and with greater precision.
In effect we must define the military capabilities we seek in the new
revolution in military affairs. Although this revolution will be driven
by perceived needs and future threats, significant change in our doctrine,
organizational innovation and decision making capability must accompany
technological change. Just as critical as defining the need for new
capabilities is identifying a process for realizing them first and
then getting them into the hands of Soldiers, Sailors, Airmen and Marines
in a timely fashion.
Discussion:
Requirements for guiding operational concepts (littoral and other
maritime operations, maneuver warfare, and air/space control).
Forward engagement and power projection requirements.
Enhancement of joint and combined capabilities.
Translating missions into force structure options.
Implications and issues associated with undergoing a transformation.
Nature of future challenges: defining force characteristics, determining
desired capabilities - to meet what threats?
Perceived U.S. - European capability/technology gap.
Moderator:
Dr. Robert L. Pfaltzgraff, Jr.
Panel Members:
Dr. Ashton B. Carter, Ford Foundation Professor of Science and International
Affairs, John F. Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University,
and Co-Author of Preventive Defense
General George A. Joulwan, USA (Ret.), former SACEUR, and Olin Professor
of National Security Studies, U.S. Military Academy
Lieutenant General Thomas G. McInerney, USAF (Ret.), President and
CEO, Business Executives for National Security
General Michael P. C. Carns, USAF (Ret.), President and Executive Director
of the Center for International Political Economy (CIPE), and former
Vice-Chief of Staff of Air Force, DCINC of CINCPAC, Director of the
Joint Staff
Reception, Dinner and Keynote Address
1830 - 2100
Beyond Joint Vision 2010
General Henry H. Shelton, USA, Chairman, Joint Chiefs of Staff
Introduction by General John R. Galvin, USA (Ret.), Dean of The Fletcher
School of Law and Diplomacy, Tufts University, and former SACEUR
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WEDNESDAY, NOVEMBER 3
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Informal Reception
0815 - 0845
PANEL 4
0900 - 1030
Strategic Visions: Serving the Nation into the 21st Century
Close cooperation between the Services is key to successful future
application of military power. Although threats to American security
have changed significantly in the last decade, our military forces
look much the same. Each Service has its own vision for the future.
Determining how these visions relate to a larger joint strategy designed
to adjust to the demands of future threats is essential. Success will
be defined in large part by the degree of cooperation and interdependence
the Services adopt and the development of a joint implementation strategy.
To achieve joint effectiveness means more than cooperation. The Services
will need to shed unnecessary redundancies and integrate core competencies
more effectively and efficiently.
Discussion:
Creating a joint strategic vision.
Building forces that are agile, lethal, and readily deployable.
Tailoring budget priorities to a joint strategic vision.
Synchronization & Synergy: land forces, maritime capabilities,
and aerospace.
Integrating capabilities and eliminating unnecessary redundancies.
Achieving optimum efficiency in Joint Operations & CINC Support.
Moderator:
Dr. Robert L. Pfaltzgraff, Jr.
Panel Members:
General Eric K. Shinseki, USA, Chief of Staff, U.S. Army
General James L. Jones, USMC, Commandant, U.S. Marine Corps
Admiral Donald L. Pilling, USN, Vice Chief of Naval Operations
General Lester L. Lyles, USAF, Vice Chief of Staff, U.S. Air Force
PANEL 5
1045 - 1200
Re-Defining Defense: Preparing U. S. Forces for the Future
At the heart of re-defining defense is creating a more strategically
responsive force. Our Armed Forces must undertake change in three primary
areas: modernization, human resources, and readiness. Of course, each
element of change means something different to each of our Services.
Fundamentally important will be hard choices between present capabilities
and what will be needed in the transformed security environment of
the early twenty-first century. How to reconcile existing requirements
with necessary investment in forces for the years ahead will be a challenge
that must be met.
Discussion:
Defining defense priorities.
The weapons modernization agenda: legacy systems and/or future systems.
Personnel issues and end strength: recruiting, readiness, and incentives.
Congressional and public support for defense.
Consider new approaches to the acquisition process: advancing prototypes
and threat based selection and other options.
Moderator:
Lieutenant General Richard A. Chilcoat, USA, President, National Defense
University
Panel Members:
The Honorable Richard L. Armitage, President, Armitage Associates L.C.
Representative Mac Thornberry (R-TX), House Armed Services Committee
Dr. Michael O'Hanlon, Senior Fellow, Foreign Policy Studies, The Brookings
Institution
The Honorable Edward L. Warner III, Assistant Secretary of Defense
for Strategy and Threat Reduction
Luncheon and Address
1215 - 1345
Setting Defense Priorities for a 21st Century Transformation
The Honorable John J. Hamre, Deputy Secretary of Defense
Introduction by the Honorable Bernard D. Rostker, Under Secretary of
the Army
PANEL 6
1400 - 1530
Realizing True Jointness in QDR Process and Product - How We Do It
Right
The 2001 Quadrennial Defense Review will offer unique opportunities
and challenges. The last QDR provides valuable lessons that could improve
both the process and the outcome of the next review - chief among these
is the recurring theme of the conference, cooperation. The next QDR
will challenge old modes of thinking, offer alternatives to the status
quo, and call many Service equities into question. Our challenge is
to find a way, as a defense community, to garner the greatest possible
value out of the process. In order to develop the best defense strategy
and program for the nation as we enter the twenty-first century, we
must approach the process jointly.
Discussion:
The last QDR: lessons learned; how to avoid failures and build on
success.
Moving beyond the protection of Service equities to enhanced jointness.
Desired outcomes.
Leadership demands.
Preparation required for success.
Moderator:
Ms. Michèle A. Flournoy, Senior Fellow, Institute for National
Strategic Studies, National Defense University
Panel Members:
Dr. Richard H. Shultz, Jr., Director, International Security Studies
Program and Associate Professor of International Politics, The Fletcher
School of Law and Diplomacy, Tufts University, and Co-Editor of War
in the Information Age and Security Studies for the 21st Century
Dr. David S. C. Chu, Vice President, Army Research Division, and Director,
RAND Arroyo Center, RAND Corporation
Dr. Jacquelyn K. Davis, Executive Vice President, Institute for Foreign
Policy Analysis and Co-Author of Strategic Paradigms 2025
Senator Jack Reed, Senate Armed Services Committee
Closing Remarks
1545
Dr. Robert L. Pfaltzgraff, Jr.
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